Deutsche Bank is standing by its call for a 30% return on the S&P 500 this year, despite increasing global fears over the escalating U.S.-China trade dispute.
Binky Chadha — head of asset allocation and chief equity strategist at the firm — told CNBC on Tuesday he is keeping the S&P target at 3,250, which is the highest among major Wall Street firms.
If the S&P were to hit 3,250 by the end of the year, that would represent a 29.7% increase from the index’s 2,506 close on Dec. 31, 2018. The end of last year was rough for the stock market. But so far in 2019, even with uncertainty about whether Washington and Beijing can reach a trade deal and call off their increased tariffs, the S&P has gained about 14%.
The S&P, as of Monday’s close, was only off about 3.4% from its all-time intraday record high of 2,940 on Sept. 21, 2018. That was just before the bottom dropped out.
According to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey, the average 2019 S&P target among 17 firms is 2,961, with 2,750 as the lowest from Morgan Stanley‘s Mike Wilson and Barclays‘ Maneesh Deshpande.
In a “Squawk on the Street ” interview, Chadha said he expects the market to pull back over the next three months before quickly bouncing back up into the end of the year. “I’m very much of the view that things need to get worse before they can get better.”
Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in a speech Tuesday that the U.S.-China trade conflict was a “prominent downside risk ” that could increase pressure on the economy.